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A study in The Lancet Oncology estimates that infections with 12 pathogens were linked to about 2.3 million new cancer cases worldwide in 2024, or roughly 12% of the total. Four pathogens—H. pylori, HPV, hepatitis B and Epstein-Barr virus—accounted for about 92% of infection-attributed cases, while low- and middle-income countries carried most of the burden.
A global analysis published in The Lancet Oncology estimates that infections caused about 2.3 million cancer cases in 2024, roughly 12% of all new cases worldwide. The findings point to vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B, alongside other infection-control measures, as ways to reduce some cancer risks.
The researchers assessed 12 cancer-associated pathogens, including viruses, bacteria and parasites. They used estimates of new cancer cases from the Global Cancer Observatory’s GLOBOCAN database, which put the worldwide total at about 20 million in 2024, and combined those estimates with published research on infection prevalence among people with specific cancers. The resulting figures are estimates of cases attributable to infection, not a count of individually verified causes.
Four pathogens accounted for about 92% of the infection-linked cases, according to the analysis. Helicobacter pylori, a bacterium that infects the stomach and other parts of the gastrointestinal tract, was linked to about 760,000 cases, primarily gastric cancers. HPV was linked to about 750,000, including cervical, penile, throat and mouth cancers. Hepatitis B was linked to 360,000 cases, and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) to 260,000.
The analysis comes amid low global coverage of HPV vaccination. The World Health Organization reports that 31% of eligible adolescent girls received at least one HPV vaccine dose in 2024, compared with a target of 90%. The study also found that low- and middle-income countries accounted for 77% of the infection-attributed cancer burden; about 81% of HPV-linked cancers occurred in those countries.
Vaccines Could Prevent Some Cancer Risks
The findings put a measurable scale on the relationship between infections and cancer, while showing that the burden is concentrated in a small number of pathogens. HPV and hepatitis B vaccines can prevent infections associated with cancer; reducing infection could in turn prevent some related cancers. The analysis estimates the potential burden, but it does not measure how many cases a particular vaccination campaign would prevent.
Dr. Prashant Mathur, director of India’s National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research, who was not involved in the study, told Live Science that the findings support preventing underlying infections as one part of cancer prevention. Mathur also said that, alongside factors such as tobacco and alcohol use, diet, physical activity and pollution, an estimated 50% to 60% of cancers in India may be avoidable. That figure reflects combined risk factors, not infections alone.
Uneven access to prevention is central to the story. If most infection-attributed cases occur in low- and middle-income countries, expanding vaccine access and other prevention efforts there could have substantial public-health relevance. The study, however, does not itself establish what policies, funding or delivery changes would be required.
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Four Pathogens Drive Most Cases
The study’s estimates build on cancer registry information compiled in GLOBOCAN and published evidence connecting infections with particular cancers. H. pylori is associated mainly with stomach cancers, while HPV can contribute to several cancers, including cervical cancer. Hepatitis B affects the liver and is linked to liver cancer; EBV is associated with certain lymphomas and cancers of the throat and stomach.
Vaccination is not equally available for all four leading pathogens. There are vaccines against HPV and hepatitis B, while there is not yet an approved EBV vaccine. Dr. Rebecca Perkins, an obstetrician-gynecologist at Tufts University School of Medicine who was not involved in the study, told Live Science that countries with HPV vaccination rates above 80% have reached a point where cervical cancer is beginning to disappear. She also cited research from Australia, England and Finland reporting no HPV-related cancers or deaths among young adults vaccinated by age 13.
Perkins said a single-dose HPV vaccine regimen could make campaigns easier by lowering costs and removing the need to track recipients for a second dose. The source report says trials have supported a single-dose approach, but national schedules and implementation differ. EBV presents a separate scientific challenge: tumor virologist Claire Shannon-Lowe of the University of Birmingham told Live Science that the virus uses multiple proteins to enter cells and can persist in the body for life.
“The biggest misconception from families is that the HPV vaccine is not needed or that it can wait.”
— Dr. Rebecca Perkins, Tufts University School of Medicine, speaking to Live Science
Estimates Do Not Predict Prevention
The 2.3 million figure is an estimate of cases attributable to infection, based on cancer registry estimates and published infection data. It is not a direct tally of cases proven to have been caused by a pathogen, and the analysis does not say how many of those cases could be prevented under specific vaccination or treatment programs.
The source report does not provide a pathogen-by-pathogen breakdown for all 12 agents, or detailed regional totals beyond the overall low- and middle-income-country share and the HPV figure. It also does not quantify the effect of differences in screening, vaccine access or other prevention measures on the estimates. Most people infected with EBV do not develop a related cancer, despite the virus’s widespread prevalence.
Coverage and Vaccine Research Ahead
The immediate public-health focus identified by the report is raising access to and uptake of existing HPV and hepatitis B vaccines. Global HPV coverage remains below the WHO’s 90% target, and the burden described in the study is concentrated in countries with fewer resources. The analysis does not announce a new vaccination policy or set a timetable for reaching that target.
Researchers are also continuing to study simplified HPV vaccination schedules and possible vaccines against EBV. Shannon-Lowe suggested that links between EBV and autoimmune diseases may add impetus to vaccine research, but an approved EBV vaccine is not currently available. Further studies and public-health data will be needed to assess how changes in prevention and vaccine coverage affect infection-linked cancer rates.
Key Questions
What does the study mean by one in eight cancer cases?
The researchers estimated that infections with the 12 pathogens they examined were linked to about 2.3 million of roughly 20 million new cancer cases worldwide in 2024, or about 12%. This is an attribution estimate, not a count of cases individually confirmed to have been caused by infection.
Which infections accounted for most of the cases?
H. pylori, HPV, hepatitis B and EBV together accounted for about 92% of the infection-attributed cases in the analysis. The estimates were about 760,000 for H. pylori, 750,000 for HPV, 360,000 for hepatitis B and 260,000 for EBV.
Are vaccines available for these infections?
Vaccines are available for HPV and hepatitis B. The report says there is no approved vaccine for EBV. The study examined 12 pathogens, so the four leading infections are not the full list in the analysis.
Where was the infection-linked cancer burden highest?
The study estimated that low- and middle-income countries accounted for 77% of the global infection-attributed burden. About 81% of HPV-linked cancers occurred in those countries, according to the report.
Does the study show that vaccination will prevent one in eight cancers?
No. It estimates the share of cancer cases attributable to infections; it does not measure how many cases a particular vaccination program would prevent. Vaccines can prevent HPV and hepatitis B infections, but the study’s overall estimate should not be treated as a forecast of vaccine impact.
Source: fediverse
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