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A study comparing European food supplies, temperatures and diabetes estimates found Southern Europe’s dietary energy mix was closest to the Planetary Health Diet, while estimated diabetes prevalence rose from 6.4% in 2011 to 9.3% in 2024. The ecological study cannot show that diet or warming caused the increase, and food-supply figures do not measure what people actually eat.
A European study found that Southern Europe’s food supply was closest to Planetary Health Diet targets among four regions, even as estimated diabetes prevalence among adults aged 20 to 79 rose from 6.4% in 2011 to 9.3% in 2024. The comparison does not explain the rise: researchers analyzed regional food availability, climate and diabetes data, not individuals’ diets or the causes of their illness.
Published in the journal Sustainability, the study compared Northern, Southern, Eastern and Western Europe using food-supply data for 62 countries from 2010 to 2023, regional temperature estimates from 2014 to 2024, and International Diabetes Federation prevalence estimates for 2011 and 2024. The researchers also examined Italian temperature and diabetes data. Their work was conducted by researchers from the University of Chieti-Pescara, Italy’s National Research Council, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and San Giovanni Addolorata Hospital in Rome.
Diabetes prevalence estimates increased in three regions: from 6.4% to 9.3% in Southern Europe, 5.3% to 6.5% in Western Europe, and 4.7% to 6.2% in Northern Europe. In Eastern Europe, the estimate fell from 7.3% to about 6%; the report cautions that limitations in reporting may have affected those figures. These are regional estimates for adults aged 20 to 79, not counts of new diagnoses during the period.
The food comparison found that, across regions, available dietary energy from tree nuts and legumes was well below the Planetary Health Diet’s recommended shares, while milk and butter, meat, and sugar and sweeteners exceeded targets. Southern Europe had the largest share from unsaturated plant oils, at 17.4%, compared with a target of 14.8%. Its overall mix was closest to the diet’s targets, but that does not mean the region met every recommendation.
Why Diet Alignment Is Not Enough
The findings underline that a region’s food supply and its diabetes burden are different measures of population health. Southern Europe can look comparatively close to dietary targets in national supply data while its estimated diabetes prevalence rises. That apparent mismatch matters for readers because it cautions against treating a broad regional diet score as a direct explanation for chronic disease trends.
The study also points to climate as a possible health concern rather than a demonstrated cause of the regional changes. Researchers observed generally rising annual average temperatures across Europe, with stronger warming in the south. The report says heat may increase risks for people with diabetes, while the cited evidence on hypoglycemia largely concerns short-term outcomes in people with type 1 diabetes. The analysis does not establish how much temperature contributed to prevalence trends.
Food systems also have an environmental stake: the report notes they account for an estimated 21% to 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and cites estimates that more sustainable diets could reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions in Europe by up to 40%. Those figures describe broader climate context; the study did not measure emissions reductions resulting from any particular regional diet.
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What the Regional Diet Scores Measure
The researchers compared the proportions of available dietary energy represented by food categories with Planetary Health Diet recommendations. The underlying Food and Agriculture Organization data describe national food availability, not individual consumption. A supply estimate cannot establish what people bought, prepared or ate, and it cannot show how intake differed among people within a country.
The regional comparison also has limits in how foods are classified. Although the share attributed to cereals aligned with the diet targets, the data did not distinguish whole grains from refined grains. The study’s climate analysis used ERA5 reanalysis data to estimate area-weighted annual temperatures at two metres above the surface for 2014–2024; Italy’s temperature data came from the national statistics institute ISTAT. The researchers additionally considered Italy following UNESCO’s recognition of Italian cuisine as intangible cultural heritage in December 2025, but that recognition does not establish a health effect.
In the Planetary Health Diet comparison, the recommended energy shares for tree nuts and legumes were each 11.5%, while the four-region unweighted averages were 1.3% and 0.8%, respectively. Sugar and sweeteners averaged 12% of available energy against a 4.8% target. These are comparisons of food-supply composition, not measures of a person’s dietary adherence.
What the Comparison Cannot Explain
The study is an ecological comparison, meaning it examines aggregated regional and national data rather than following individuals. It cannot establish that a particular food pattern or temperature change caused diabetes, nor determine which factors account for the rise in Southern Europe’s estimate. The report does not provide individual-level information linking diet, heat exposure and diagnosis.
It is also unclear how much of the difference between regional estimates reflects changes in underlying prevalence versus data and reporting limitations. The study notes potential reporting limitations for Eastern Europe, whose estimate declined, but the supplied report does not quantify their effect. Food availability may differ from consumption, and the cereal category’s lack of separation between whole and refined grains further limits interpretation.
The report describes rising temperatures and increasing diabetes prevalence in Italy over time, but the available material does not give a causal estimate or show that one trend drove the other. The findings should be read as patterns that warrant further investigation, not as proof of a mechanism or a prediction for individuals.
What Further Research Must Establish
The immediate next step is to test the regional patterns with individual-level and comparable data that can distinguish food actually consumed from food available in national supplies. Studies would also need to account for other factors that may influence diabetes prevalence before attributing changes to diet or temperature.
Further analysis could clarify whether heat exposure is associated with diabetes outcomes over longer periods and across different populations, building on the short-term evidence discussed for hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes. The study itself does not announce a follow-up timetable, and the supplied report does not identify a new dataset or planned milestone. For now, the confirmed result is a regional comparison—and the causes behind the contrasting diet and prevalence patterns remain unsettled.
Key Questions
Did the study find that the Planetary Health Diet prevents diabetes?
No. It compared regional food availability with diet targets and diabetes prevalence. Its ecological design cannot establish that following the diet prevents diabetes or caused regional prevalence changes.
What happened to Southern Europe’s diabetes estimate?
The estimated prevalence among adults aged 20 to 79 rose from 6.4% in 2011 to 9.3% in 2024, according to the study’s cited International Diabetes Federation data.
Does the study show what people in Southern Europe eat?
No. The food figures measure national food supply and available dietary energy, not individual consumption. They do not show what particular people ate.
Did warmer temperatures cause the increase in diabetes?
The study does not establish that. It observed generally rising temperatures, especially in Southern Europe, and discussed possible heat-related risks, but it did not determine that warming caused the prevalence increase.
Source: news-medical.net
